As a volunteer with The Parole Preparation Project, I worked with two incarcerated individuals in order to help them prepare for their parole interviews. The first man I worked with was in his early 50’s, the second was turning 70. Both men are Black and had committed similar crimes. The first man was hopeful, getting ready for his first ever parole interview. As luck would have it, the Board of Parole granted him release, making it his last. The second man was less hopeful, as he had been denied over 20 times by the Board. Although that interview was also his last, it didn’t change the fact that this man spent most of his life in prison, a large portion of that due to parole denials.
These two men differed in past criminal behavior, records during custody, participation in programs, future aspirations, and plans upon release - all things that the Board of Parole takes into consideration. Both men were also remorseful, thoughtful and full of life.
When these men went for their parole board interviews, were they seen as the thoughtful men I came to know and love? Or were they evaluated solely on the crime that landed them in prison and the perceived risk of letting them out?
What really influences a candidate's chances for parole? Are factors like age, race, time served, portion of sentence served and interview type significant in determining the outcomes of parole interviews?
With these questions in mind, I set out to uncover patterns in parole decisions using publicly available data on incarcerated individuals and their parole interviews from September 2021 to September 2023.
The result is a data visualization story of my discoveries, highlighting what I found to be most important and intriguing. Through working with this data extensively, I've found that there are endless ways to explore, analyze, and visualize this data. This reality is both beautiful and overwhelming.
A key point to note: This analysis is based solely on quantifiable, publicly accessible data. It doesn't include private criminal records, detailed explanations of Board of Parole decisions, or other immeasurable factors like the specifics of the crime, political context, the individual's demeanor during the hearing, their perceived remorse, the robustness of their release plan, or the level of community support or opposition. Therefore, while this analysis provides valuable insights, it is important to recognize that it represents only a partial view, limited to the measurable aspects of the parole interview process.
Over these two years, the Board of Parole of New York conducted 0 interviews with persons eligible for parole.
There were a total of 9,077 individuals interviewed.
2,760 of those individuals were interviewed more than once.
Taking a look at the outcomes of these interviews, approximately 47% were denied parole, 34% were granted parole.
The remaining interviews were either postponed, or not yet given a decision at time of data collection / given a decision of "other".
For our purposes, we're going to focus on the interviews with decisions of either denied or granted.
We'll look at variables of interest such as race, age, interview type, portion of sentence served and how they relate to these interview decisions.
First, check out the makeup of these groups by race/ethnicity.
Hover over the pie charts to explore.
White identifiying people make up 40.7% of the granted interviews and 30.6% of the denied interviews.
Black people make up 37.9% of the granted interviews and 45.6% of the denied interviews.
15% more interviews of Black people were denied than interviews of White people.
Is this difference significant? Or could it be due to the fact that there were more interviews of Black people than White people?
Here, each bar has been adjusted to represent an equal proportion of each racial group, ensuring a fair comparison despite differences in group sizes in the data.
The chart highlights the relative rates at which different racial groups are granted or denied parole.
Hover over the bars to discover more details.
Note: These percentages don't total 100% per group, as interviews with postponements or other outcomes are not included in this visual representation.
Interviews of Black people are 19.6% more frequently denied than granted parole and 8.26% more frequently denied parole than interviews of White people.
Interviews of White people are 1.05% more frequently denied than granted parole and 10.46% more frequently granted parole than interviews of Black people.
This chart presents a similar analysis, but now focusing on age groups. It allows us to compare how parole decisions vary across different age brackets.
Hover over the bars to explore the specifics for each age group.
Interviews of people under 25 are 32.91% more frequently denied than granted parole and 9.2% more frequently denied parole than interviews of people aged 45-54.
Interviews of people aged 45-54 are 5.18% more frequently denied than granted parole and 18.5% more frequently granted parole than interviews of people under 25.
Here, I want to specifically point out the 55 and over age group.
In prison, this age group is considered to be seniors, whereas in life outside of prison that begins at 65, those who're incarcerated experience accelerated aging. Due to incarceration, their biological aging speeds up.
It is the only age group that doesn't follow the expected pattern of decreasing denials and increasing grants with advancing age.
So far, the data has shown some trends that, while intriguing, are not entirely unexpected considering the historical context of this country.
Firstly, it appears that parole interviews involving Black individuals are more frequently denied compared to other races, while those involving White individuals are more often granted.
Additionally, the overall likelihood of parole being granted seems to increase with the age of the individual.
So, let's look at something I found to be a little more surprising.
This chart shows the frequency of parole denials and grants in relation to the portion of the maximum sentence served by individuals at the time of their interview. More simply, it compares how often parole is denied or granted at different stages of maximum sentence completion.
Note: Percentage of sentence served at interview was calculated using time served at interview divided by maximum sentence. To determine a maximum sentence length in years for those with a life sentence, the individual's age was subtracted from the average American adult lifespan of 76 years old.
The distribution seen here suggests that there's a sweet spot for being granted parole at around 25% of maximum sentence served and a spike in denials of those who've served well over half of their maximum sentence.
Explore the distribution of parole decisions across different variables by toggling the options below.
Unlike percent of sentence served, the similar patterns in both granted and denied decisions across these variables suggests that they may not be as significant in determining the outcomes of parole decisions.
Another variable we've yet to look at is the type of interview.
INITIAL: initial appearance, PIE hearings (parole immediately eligible), merit time hearings, early conditional parole for deportation hearings, medical hearings, and supplemental merit hearings.
REAPPEAR: Reappearances - release was previously denied.
OTHER: Parole violation hearings, hearings held after parole is granted but new information causes the parole board to reconsider, hearings following a successful appeal of parole denial.
Initial and reappearance interviews together account for approximately 97% of all parole interviews. Let's focus more closely on these two types.
Move your cursor over the chart to explore the breakdown of initial and reappearance interviews by their parole decisions.
Initial interviews result in parole grants 2.2% more frequently than reappearance interviews.
Parole is denied in reappearance interviews 7% more often than in initial interviews.
Not only are parole grants less common in reappearance interviews compared to initial ones, but denials are also more frequent.
Now, let's narrow our focus. As we shift away from the overall parole decisions, we'll concentrate specifically on the denied reappearance interviews.
Here, looking at the denied reappearance interviews by age groups, we see that interviews of people 55 and over make up the largest portion.
Hover over the bars to find out more.
And if we add in the reappearance interviews that were granted parole, we see that although a significant portion of interviews of people 55 and over were granted parole, the age group has the largest difference between denials and grants.
This exploration into two years of parole interviews in New York State has revealed several interesting trends.
Most obvious is that parole is being denied significantly more often than it is being granted.
And it's clear race, age, and interview type play significant roles in these decisions.